Look Beyond What Survived

In World War II, the U.S. military wanted to reinforce their aircraft to prevent losses in aerial combat. They gathered data on returning planes, noting where they had taken the most damage. The plan was to reinforce these heavily damaged areas. However, statistician Abraham Wald pointed out a critical error in their approach: they only considered the planes that survived. What about the ones that didn't return?

This anecdote illustrates the concept of survivorship bias. This logical error occurs when we focus on the people or things that "survived" some process while overlooking those that didn't because of their lack of visibility. If the military had only concentrated on the surviving planes, it would have missed that cockpit, and motors were essential to reinforce precisely because no returning plane had bullet holes there.

Survivorship bias can skew our understanding in various fields, from business to health. For example, we may look at successful people and believe that emulating their habits will lead to similar success. But what about the countless others who followed the same path and failed?

Understanding survivorship bias helps us question our assumptions, realize the full range of outcomes, and make better decisions. It reminds us that success stories are just one part of the equation, and often, there's more to learn from failure.

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