A butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas. This is what makes long-term weather prediction practically impossible. It is also the essence of the butterfly effect, a concept introduced by mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1960s.
Lorenz was among the first to work on weather models when computers became available in institutions. One day, as he wanted to revisit a weather prediction sequence that he had looked at, he took a shortcut and inserted the number “.506” from a previous result. He was shocked when he got vastly different results than in the past.
At first, Lorenz thought it was an issue with the machine, but then he realized it was a rounding error, as Lorenz had rounded the previous result of “0.506127” to just three decimal places. A difference of three decimal places, which Lorenz estimated was similar to a butterfly wing flap, led him to realize that even slight variations could have a significant impact.
The butterfly effect has been observed in various fields. For example, a single tweet can go viral and lead to a massive cultural shift, or a slight change in interest rates or stock prices can significantly impact the global economy. It also led to the creation of Chaos Theory, a scientific area that studies complex systems that look random because they are super sensitive to initial conditions.
Small changes can have enormous consequences. It's important to remember that every decision we make, no matter how insignificant, can create a ripple effect that can change the course of history.
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